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Who Will Go the Distance in 2002?

The Eagles wanted to know the answer to this question in "The Long Run" and I am sure all of us drag racing fans are wondering what driver will come out #1 this year.  So, just like mutual fund companies do, we will look at past performance to try and predict this year's winners.  Of course, make sure you cover your bets with the same statement that mutual funds do: "Past performance isn't always an indicator of current and future performance."

I took the top drivers who have qualified at the first two events.  The stats listed are from 1990 and are comparable from year to year. (Elapsed times and MPH would not be comparable from year to year.)  (For PSB, since there have been no events yet, I just put together the most common qualifiers in the table.  PSB stats are from 1999.)  Here is the key to the headings:

AVERAGES: ELIMINATIONS: EVENTS:
QP=Average Qualifying Position, W=Total Wins Wins=Total Number of Event Wins
Rds=Average Rounds Advanced per Event L=Total Losses R/U=Total Number of Event Runner Ups
Win %=Overall Winning Percentage
QUALIFYING:
Tot=Total Number of Event Qualified=Total Number 1 Qualifying Positions
Yr=Unique Number of Years Driver Qualified for at Least One Event
# 1's=Total Number 1 Qualifying Positions,
Top=Total Number of Times in Top Half of Qualifying Field
Bot=Total Number of Times in Bottom Half of Qualifying Field
TYPE OF WIN:
Good=% of Wins Driver Won Because They Outran Opponent but neither aborted
Abrt=% of Wins Driver Won Because both Drivers or one Driver Aborted a Run
Hsht=% of Wins Driver Won on a Holeshot
Rdlt=% of Wins Driver Won Because Opponent Redlighted


Unique Events: 30
Total Drivers: 12 Averages Eliminations Qualifying Events Type of Win
Driver QP Rds W L Win % Tot Yr # 1's Top Bot Wins R/U Good Abrt Hsht Rdlt
BERNSTEIN 6.1 2.4 355 207 63.2% 238 12 23 178 60 31 26 43% 47% 6% 4%
COWIN 9.5 1.6 15 27 35.7% 27 3 0 12 15 0 2 40% 47% 7% 7%
DIXON 6.2 2.4 219 132 62.4% 148 7 12 104 44 16 17 44% 48% 3% 5%
GRUBNIC 9.9 1.4 32 73 30.5% 73 5 1 23 50 0 2 41% 47% 3% 9%
HARTMAN 12.0 1.3 15 56 21.1% 56 6 0 4 52 0 0 27% 60% 7% 7%
HERBERT 9.6 1.7 106 138 43.4% 145 10 0 63 82 6 6 25% 62% 8% 5%
KALITTA, D 6.2 2.3 120 81 59.7% 89 4 4 67 22 8 12 38% 53% 5% 4%
LAMPUS 10.4 1.4 12 28 30.0% 28 4 0 9 19 0 0 25% 75% 0% 0%
MCCLENATHAN 5.4 2.4 283 161 63.7% 188 10 26 151 37 26 12 45% 45% 5% 5%
RUSSELL 6.5 2.4 36 22 62.1% 24 1 0 19 5 2 5 53% 42% 0% 6%
SCHUMACHER 8.2 2.2 122 94 56.5% 99 6 3 54 45 5 15 34% 61% 2% 2%
SMITH, J 13.7 1.2 2 12 14.3% 12 2 0 0 12 0 0 0% 100% 0% 0%

 
Unique Events: 30
Total Drivers: 15 Averages Eliminations Qualifying Events Type of Win
Driver QP Rds W L Win % Tot Yr # 1's Top Bot Wins R/U Good Abrt Hsht Rdlt
BAZEMORE 7.9 1.9 201 193 51.0% 207 12 18 110 97 10 15 36% 53% 4% 6%
CANNON 9.0 1.7 41 60 40.6% 60 3 0 28 32 0 1 24% 71% 2% 2%
CAPPS 6.5 2.3 147 96 60.5% 107 5 6 77 30 11 12 37% 52% 5% 6%
CREASY 13.5 1.1 5 36 12.2% 36 5 0 0 36 0 0 40% 60% 0% 0%
DENSHAM 10.7 1.4 85 183 31.7% 188 12 1 51 137 2 6 19% 71% 5% 6%
FORCE 2.8 3.2 625 149 80.7% 242 12 97 235 7 93 41 41% 53% 2% 4%
GILBERTSON 12.9 1.5 27 48 36.0% 49 4 0 2 47 1 2 19% 52% 22% 7%
GRAY 11.6 1.6 12 21 36.4% 21 2 0 4 17 0 0 25% 67% 8% 0%
HOFMANN 8.0 2.0 230 202 53.2% 217 12 8 127 90 15 17 42% 51% 3% 4%
JOHNSON 6.6 1.9 41 39 51.2% 42 3 4 32 10 3 3 41% 51% 2% 5%
PEDREGON, C 4.7 2.5 245 125 66.2% 147 9 29 123 24 22 20 43% 50% 4% 3%
PEDREGON, T 5.8 2.4 207 127 62.0% 141 7 10 112 29 14 18 40% 52% 6% 3%
SKUZA 8.3 1.7 121 163 42.6% 165 9 3 91 74 2 10 36% 55% 3% 6%
TOLIVER 8.6 1.8 54 64 45.8% 67 4 2 33 34 3 5 48% 50% 2% 0%
WORSHAM 9.4 1.8 164 176 48.2% 184 12 2 76 108 7 6 33% 57% 7% 3%

 
Unique Events: 30
Total Drivers: 18 Averages Eliminations Qualifying Events Type of Win
Driver QP Rds W L Win % Tot Yr # 1's Top Bot Wins R/U Good Abrt Hsht Rdlt
ALDERMAN 6.5 2.6 210 95 68.9% 119 9 22 76 43 24 17 64% 21% 7% 8%
ALLEN 8.1 1.7 134 171 43.9% 175 12 8 95 80 4 7 55% 17% 19% 9%
ANDERSON 10.3 1.9 37 36 50.7% 38 4 1 11 27 2 4 51% 14% 30% 5%
COUGHLIN, J 7.9 2.5 189 88 68.2% 111 8 6 63 48 23 9 53% 19% 21% 7%
COUGHLIN, T 9.0 1.8 67 79 45.9% 80 5 1 41 39 1 8 45% 27% 21% 7%
EDWARDS 8.4 2.1 108 83 56.5% 92 6 5 45 47 9 10 56% 13% 23% 8%
GAINES 11.2 1.6 29 42 40.8% 44 5 0 9 35 2 2 38% 34% 17% 10%
JOHNSON, A 10.2 1.6 31 47 39.7% 48 6 0 18 30 1 2 39% 23% 35% 3%
JOHNSON, K 5.3 2.4 273 158 63.3% 180 9 20 147 33 22 16 64% 15% 12% 8%
JOHNSON, W 2.9 2.8 505 174 74.4% 241 12 103 228 13 67 31 73% 15% 3% 9%
KRISHER 7.4 1.6 53 74 41.7% 77 5 5 48 29 3 3 74% 11% 11% 4%
MARNELL 8.7 1.6 64 109 37.0% 110 8 2 55 55 1 0 36% 27% 28% 9%
MARTINO 9.8 1.7 79 97 44.9% 101 6 1 36 65 4 7 44% 18% 25% 13%
MORGAN 8.6 1.9 160 157 50.5% 164 12 2 87 77 7 12 50% 18% 17% 15%
OSBORNE 9.6 1.7 80 108 42.6% 111 9 8 40 71 3 8 39% 20% 25% 16%
PAWUK 8.1 1.8 178 203 46.7% 209 12 4 124 85 6 14 57% 22% 13% 7%
STEVENS 8.3 2.0 67 62 51.9% 66 4 1 32 34 4 3 52% 28% 13% 6%
YATES, JIM 6.3 2.3 313 192 62.0% 215 12 21 155 60 23 29 64% 19% 10% 8%

 
Unique Events:30
Total Drivers: 22 Averages Eliminations Qualifying Events Type of Win
Driver QP Rds W L Win % Tot Yr # 1's Top Bot Wins R/U Good Abrt Hsht Rdlt
AYERS, B 12.8 1.1 1 19 5.0% 19 2 0 0 19 0 0 0% 0% 0% 100%
AYERS, R 12.5 1.1 3 35 7.9% 35 3 0 1 34 0 0 67% 0% 33% 0%
BERRY 10.6 1.2 3 19 13.6% 19 2 0 6 13 0 0 0% 33% 0% 67%
BROWN 3.3 2.7 82 33 71.3% 42 3 6 42 0 9 5 63% 9% 5% 23%
CAMARENA 13.2 1.2 2 13 13.3% 13 2 0 0 13 0 0 50% 0% 0% 50%
COOK 9.8 1.3 4 14 22.2% 14 2 0 3 11 0 0 50% 0% 0% 50%
DELONG 14.0 1.0 0 16 0.0% 16 3 0 0 16 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0%
DESANTIS 11.9 1.3 7 27 20.6% 27 3 0 3 24 0 0 43% 43% 14% 0%
GANN 7.5 2.1 29 25 53.7% 26 2 0 19 7 1 3 59% 17% 3% 21%
HALE 12.2 1.2 3 20 13.0% 20 3 0 3 17 0 0 100% 0% 0% 0%
HINES 2.3 2.9 87 34 71.9% 42 3 17 42 0 8 6 78% 13% 2% 7%
JOHNSON 9.7 1.6 22 40 35.5% 40 3 0 12 28 0 2 50% 23% 14% 14%
MARKHAM 14.6 1.2 2 11 15.4% 11 2 0 0 11 0 0 100% 0% 0% 0%
MULLEN 5.5 2.6 47 26 64.4% 28 2 2 25 3 2 5 55% 6% 13% 26%
REUTER 13.9 1.1 1 14 6.7% 14 3 0 0 14 0 0 0% 0% 100% 0%
SAVOIE 2.2 3.2 111 25 81.6% 42 3 17 42 0 17 6 68% 9% 2% 22%
SCALI 7.1 1.9 28 32 46.7% 32 3 0 23 9 0 2 61% 21% 7% 11%
SHOWERS 10.2 1.5 14 26 35.0% 26 2 0 10 16 0 0 64% 7% 7% 21%
SMITH, J 5.9 2.2 20 17 54.1% 17 2 0 14 3 0 2 50% 35% 5% 10%
TONGLET, GT 6.4 2.4 21 13 61.8% 14 1 0 11 3 1 2 57%